What counts as a differential
A differential is a player few other managers own. The usual line is under 10% overall ownership; if you're chasing a top-100k finish, under 5%. In a mini-league the overall figure matters less than whether your rivals own him.
Why they move your rank
When a player owned by 60% of managers scores 10, the average manager gains 6 points from him, so owning him puts you only 4 points ahead of the field. A player owned by 5% who scores 10 puts you 9.5 points ahead. Same return, more than twice the rank gain. It works the other way too: when a template player hauls and you don't own him, you lose that ground.
- 1. Vuskovic BHA · DEF · £5.1m · 5.5% owned14.0 xPts over 3 GWsLIV (A), MCI (A), BRE (H) · ceiling next GW 8 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Liverpool: hard fixture (FDR 4).
- 2. Kostoulas BHA · FWD · £5.7m · 9.7% owned13.0 xPts over 3 GWsLIV (A), MCI (A), BRE (H) · ceiling next GW 9 · 42% to play 60+ minAway vs Liverpool: hard fixture (FDR 4).
- 3. Evanilson BOU · FWD · £6.1m · 4.3% owned12.2 xPts over 3 GWsMUN (A), LEE (H), IPS (A) · ceiling next GW 8 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Man Utd: hard fixture (FDR 4).
- 4. Iwobi FUL · MID · £5.4m · 1.0% owned12.2 xPts over 3 GWsCOV (A), AVL (A), NEW (H) · ceiling next GW 8 · 71% to play 60+ minAway vs Coventry City: easy fixture (FDR 2).
- 5. Murillo NFO · DEF · £5.5m · 2.0% owned12.2 xPts over 3 GWsIPS (A), BRE (A), MCI (H) · ceiling next GW 8 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Ipswich Town: easy fixture (FDR 2).
- 6. Branthwaite EVE · DEF · £5.5m · 2.4% owned12.1 xPts over 3 GWsARS (A), NEW (A), COV (H) · ceiling next GW 7 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Arsenal: very hard fixture (FDR 5).
- 7. Van Hecke TOT · DEF · £4.9m · 6.8% owned12.0 xPts over 3 GWsCHE (A), CRY (H), LEE (A) · ceiling next GW 7 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Chelsea: hard fixture (FDR 4).
- 8. Barnes NEW · MID · £6.1m · 7.8% owned12.0 xPts over 3 GWsCRY (A), EVE (H), FUL (A) · ceiling next GW 9 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Crystal Palace: medium fixture (FDR 3).
Projections updated Tue 20 Oct, 03:00 UK; ownership from FPL at Tue 20 Oct, 03:00 UK. Team news after that isn't included.
Even lower: under 5% owned
Players not already listed above. Lower ownership means a bigger swing when they return, and usually a thinner track record.
- 1. Barcola LIV · MID · £8.0m · 3.1% owned11.9 xPts over 3 GWsBHA (H), ARS (H), CRY (A) · ceiling next GW 9 · 72% to play 60+ minHome vs Brighton: medium fixture (FDR 3).
- 2. Mukiele SUN · DEF · £5.4m · 1.8% owned11.8 xPts over 3 GWsLEE (H), COV (A), CHE (H) · ceiling next GW 8 · 88% to play 60+ minHome vs Leeds: medium fixture (FDR 3).
- 3. Muharemović LEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.8% owned11.8 xPts over 3 GWsSUN (A), BOU (A), TOT (H) · ceiling next GW 7 · 88% to play 60+ minAway vs Sunderland: medium fixture (FDR 3).
- 4. Neto CHE · MID · £6.5m · 2.3% owned11.7 xPts over 3 GWsTOT (H), MUN (H), SUN (A) · ceiling next GW 9 · 72% to play 60+ minHome vs Spurs: easy fixture (FDR 2).
Projections updated Tue 20 Oct, 03:00 UK; ownership from FPL at Tue 20 Oct, 03:00 UK. Team news after that isn't included.
How sure are we?
A projection is an average, not a promise. Across this season's gameweeks 2–6, 87% of actual scores landed inside our 10–90% range, and regular starters beat the top of the range 13% of the time. So a differential projected for 5 points will often blank and now and then haul. That's the point of a differential, and it's also why one week proves nothing either way. We seal our projections before every deadline and mark them afterwards on the accuracy page, bad weeks included.
When not to go differential
- Minutes risk. A differential who's benched scores nothing. Be wary below about a 70% chance of playing 60 minutes.
- You're protecting a rank. Owning the popular picks keeps you safe; a differential adds risk you may not need.
- It costs a hit. A −4 for a differential has to outscore the player he replaces by more than 4 points. Run it through the hit check in My Team first.
- A clearly better template option. If the popular pick projects well above the differential, take the points.
A differential captain
Captaining a low-owned player is the biggest rank swing in the game, in both directions. Only consider it when his projection is within about half a point of the popular captain; see how to pick your captain.
Free tools from Gaffer Maths. Not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.