Why prices move
FPL adjusts prices once a day, overnight, based on net transfers — buys minus sells across all managers. Buy enough of a player and he rises £0.1m; sell enough and he falls £0.1m. The exact formula isn't published, but it's a moving threshold: heavily-owned players need far more transfers to move than lightly-owned ones, which is why a hot new pick can rise fast while a template player sits still for days.
Team value, and why you don't get the full rise
When you sell a player, your selling price is what you paid plus half of any rise since, rounded down to £0.1m. So if you bought someone at £7.0m and he climbed to £7.4m, he sells for £7.2m — you keep £0.2m of the £0.4m rise. Falls, on the other hand, come off in full. Over a season, catching a few early risers quietly builds the extra budget that lets you afford a stronger squad.
How to stay ahead of the changes
- Act on news early. The biggest transfer waves follow injuries, returns and big hauls. Moving before everyone else is how you catch the rise.
- Don't chase £0.1m. Never take a -4 just to beat a price change; the points cost far more than the value.
- Watch the threshold, not the rumour. A player "close to a rise" only matters if he actually crosses the line before the update.
- Mind the lock. Around his own match a player's price can't move, so a predicted change can slip to the next night.
The bottom line
Price changes are a slow game, not a daily panic. Make transfers for points first; let the value follow. The price tracker shows exactly how close every player is to the next change, straight from the official projections.