What a hit actually costs
Each gameweek you get your free transfer (or two, if you rolled one). Any transfer beyond that is a -4: four points off your gameweek score. So a hit is only worth taking if the player coming in is expected to out-score the player going out by more than four points over the time you're planning for.
Average gain isn't enough — weigh the odds
A move that gains four or five points on paper can still be a bad hit if it only comes off half the time. What matters is the whole picture: how much you expect to gain, how likely it is to pay off, and how bad the downside is if it doesn't. A hit that pays off 70% of the time is very different from one that pays off 45% of the time, even with the same average.
When a -4 is usually worth it
- A non-playing player. Replacing someone injured, suspended or benched is the clearest hit — you're turning a zero into real points.
- A big fixture swing. Moving into a player with a run of easy games, or out of one facing the toughest defences, compounds over several gameweeks.
- A captain upgrade. If the move also improves who you captain, the extra points are doubled, which clears the -4 more easily.
- Chasing in a mini-league. If you need to catch a rival, a hit on a strong lower-owned player can gain ground that a safe week won't.
When to bank instead
Hold your transfer when the gain is marginal, when it's early in the week and team news could change your mind, or when keeping a transfer gives you more options next week. Two free transfers next week is often worth more than a small -4 now. Patience is underrated.
How to check it in seconds
Rather than guess, load your squad and use the hit check: pick who to sell and who to buy, and it plays out the rest of the season from your current team hundreds of times — with and without the move — then tells you the odds the hit pays off, the typical points gained, and the range. If the numbers are close, bank the transfer.