Which teams have the kindest run? FPL's own ratings give one number per fixture. Ours split it in two: how many goals a team should score (for your attackers) and how often it should keep a clean sheet (for your defenders), from this season's expected goals. Capitals are home games, lower case away.
| Team | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | xG | Team xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | liv 1.6 | mci 1.7 | BRE 2.1 | hul 1.9 | NEW 2.4 | bou 1.7 | 1.92 | 114 |
| Man City | avl 1.8 | BHA 2.0 | nfo 1.6 | FUL 2.0 | ars 1.2 | LEE 1.8 | 1.74 | 116 |
| Man Utd | BOU 1.7 | che 1.7 | AVL 1.9 | liv 1.4 | BRE 1.8 | new 1.9 | 1.74 | 103 |
| Nott'm Forest | ips 1.8 | bre 1.6 | MCI 1.7 | bou 1.5 | CHE 1.9 | hul 1.6 | 1.68 | 95 |
| Sunderland | LEE 1.7 | cov 1.7 | CHE 1.9 | avl 1.7 | TOT 1.7 | liv 1.4 | 1.68 | 81 |
| Arsenal | EVE 1.7 | liv 1.4 | HUL 1.8 | new 1.9 | MCI 1.7 | bre 1.6 | 1.68 | 115 |
| Brentford | hul 1.7 | NFO 1.7 | bha 1.7 | EVE 1.8 | mun 1.6 | ARS 1.3 | 1.65 | 90 |
| Chelsea | TOT 1.5 | MUN 1.6 | sun 1.4 | LEE 1.5 | nfo 1.3 | CRY 1.9 | 1.53 | 105 |
| Crystal Palace | NEW 1.9 | tot 1.3 | LIV 1.4 | cov 1.5 | HUL 1.6 | che 1.5 | 1.53 | 103 |
| Fulham | cov 1.5 | avl 1.5 | NEW 1.9 | mci 1.4 | BOU 1.5 | tot 1.4 | 1.53 | 106 |
| Liverpool | BHA 1.7 | ARS 1.1 | cry 1.7 | MUN 1.6 | eve 1.4 | SUN 1.6 | 1.53 | 111 |
| Ipswich Town | NFO 1.5 | hul 1.4 | BOU 1.5 | tot 1.3 | AVL 1.7 | cov 1.5 | 1.48 | 88 |
| Bournemouth | mun 1.3 | LEE 1.4 | ips 1.5 | NFO 1.4 | ful 1.4 | BHA 1.6 | 1.45 | 103 |
| Leeds | sun 1.4 | bou 1.3 | TOT 1.5 | che 1.4 | COV 1.6 | mci 1.3 | 1.41 | 108 |
| Aston Villa | MCI 1.4 | FUL 1.5 | mun 1.2 | SUN 1.4 | ips 1.4 | EVE 1.4 | 1.39 | 101 |
| Everton | ars 1.0 | new 1.6 | COV 1.6 | bre 1.4 | LIV 1.4 | avl 1.4 | 1.39 | 110 |
| Coventry City | FUL 1.4 | SUN 1.3 | eve 1.1 | CRY 1.6 | lee 1.1 | IPS 1.5 | 1.36 | 95 |
| Spurs | che 1.3 | CRY 1.6 | lee 1.1 | IPS 1.5 | sun 1.2 | FUL 1.4 | 1.35 | 92 |
| Newcastle | cry 1.5 | EVE 1.4 | ful 1.4 | ARS 1.0 | bha 1.3 | MUN 1.4 | 1.35 | 99 |
| Hull City | BRE 1.3 | IPS 1.5 | ars 0.8 | BHA 1.4 | cry 1.4 | NFO 1.2 | 1.28 | 82 |
Attack and defence relative to an average Premier League side (1.00), adjusted for who they've played and where. Built from 60 matches of this season's expected goals; xG figures are measured, ratings modelled.
| Team | Attack ↑ | Defence ↑ | xG / match | xGA / match | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.09 | 1.42 | 1.81 | 0.78 | 6 |
| Man City | 1.18 | 1.06 | 2.01 | 1.38 | 6 |
| Brighton | 1.28 | 0.95 | 2.16 | 1.62 | 6 |
| Nott'm Forest | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.81 | 1.23 | 6 |
| Brentford | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 1.45 | 6 |
| Man Utd | 1.11 | 1.02 | 1.85 | 1.42 | 6 |
| Liverpool | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.56 | 1.24 | 6 |
| Sunderland | 1.10 | 1.01 | 1.76 | 1.68 | 6 |
| Leeds | 0.95 | 1.06 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 6 |
| Bournemouth | 0.93 | 1.08 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 6 |
| Everton | 0.95 | 1.04 | 1.47 | 1.35 | 6 |
| Fulham | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 6 |
| Chelsea | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.42 | 1.76 | 6 |
| Ipswich Town | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.48 | 1.86 | 6 |
| Spurs | 0.82 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.44 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 0.88 | 0.95 | 1.15 | 1.72 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.97 | 0.83 | 1.45 | 2.11 | 6 |
| Coventry City | 0.83 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.75 | 6 |
| Hull City | 0.81 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 1.52 | 6 |
| Newcastle | 0.89 | 0.85 | 1.19 | 1.78 | 6 |